![]() It has affected food security and drop in agricultural products. It is already causing displacement in parts of Iraq. Sarhang Hamasaeed: Yeah, drought is a serious problem. Julie Mason: Yes, I've seen stories in Iraq about, you know, long hidden antiquities emerging because of the drought, which, I mean, I think they'd rather just have the water and not have the drought and you know, forget about the antiquities. So, these have started to become tensions in already complex situations, whether you're looking at the north of the country in areas like Sinjar or in the south of the country where the marshes have been drying up again. Food security has come to be a challenge, both in the aftermath of Ukraine but because of the effects of climate change. Iraq is an oil-rich country, yet about half of the population lives under poverty or near poverty line. Julie Mason: Yeah, I mean, I was going to ask you, what do the people need there? It sounds like a lot. But the bottom line for the people lack of jobs, effects of climate change, the fight against ISIS, lack of services, and corruption continues to be daily challenges for the people. And the bottom line is that this is a fight over power and different approaches to how much external influence is exerted. Both of them are kind of on the sideline in the sense that this is a mostly, right now, a Shia-Shia political tension that is threatening, and a Shia-Shia civil war that many actors are trying to prevent. Then you have the Kurds, and then you have the Sunni Arabs. And on the other side, there is a coalition called the Coordination Framework that has members that Iran supports and that's the biggest element. Sarhang Hamasaeed: So, there are two broad camps on the Shia of Iraq, one led by Muqtada al-Sadr, who got 73 seats in the most recent elections, and he gave it up, actually decided to give it up a few months ago. Julie Mason: What are some of the underpinnings of this conflict? Who's feuding here? At the political class it is still a work in progress. And so, as I said, in short, at the public level, yes. In this round of elections, one could argue that we have seen probably the most Iraqi agency trying to push back on Iran, but still not being able to work its domestic issues out. But at the political level, the political class probably has been sliding back in their attempts at democracy. And we've seen the most expression of that in October of 2019, that led to, public protests that led to prime minister resigning in early elections. Nineteen and a half years since the fall of Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi society is trying to form their own version of the 'we the people,' holding their public officials accountable. Sarhang Hamasaeed: So, we can look at it in two ways. But, I mean, is there hope for democracy in Iraq? Julie Mason: I mean, maybe this question isn't allowed. So, there is now an international and Iraqi domestic effort to de-escalate and get the energy of the political class to dialogue and hoping that there is a way out. The situation escalated to the brink of violence, actually several episodes of violence happened, but they were contained. There have been several attempts, but unsuccessful. ![]() Since then, the political class has not been able to form a government. Sarhang Hamasaeed: Sure, yes, Iraq there's a continuing political gridlock, eleven months after national elections, which occurred in November, I'm sorry, October, of last year. So, I mean, I think, you know, we've all been so consumed with what was happening in Afghanistan and Ukraine and elsewhere, we really took our eye off Iraq, which is in a terrible situation politically. Julie Mason: Sarhang Hamasaeed is director for Middle East programs at the United States Institute of Peace. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124. It is just the political class … that makes that a longer fight.” “The Iraqi people are actually fighting for democracy. “Bottom line … this is a fight over power” and differing views on foreign influence, says USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed. After recent episodes of violence, Iraq’s political stalemate continues.
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